Liverpool vs Man City, October 11: Match File and Three Scenarios

The international break is nearly over, and the Premier League comes back with the biggest game of the autumn. On Sunday, October 11, Liverpool host Manchester City at Anfield. Kick-off is 4:30pm UK time (15:30 UTC).

Both clubs changed managers in the summer, so this is the first meeting between Andoni Iraola and Enzo Maresca in their new jobs. Here is everything you need before the game, laid out as two case files.

File #1: Manchester City

Manager: Enzo Maresca, who replaced Pep Guardiola after Guardiola resigned in the summer.

Form: five wins from five, top of the table, 15 points, goals 13:5. Seven straight wins in all competitions. The only side in the league that has not dropped a point.

Trump card: Erling Haaland, the league's top scorer with five goals. Rayan Cherki has three more.

Weak spot: the back line. Five conceded in five games is a lot for a leader, and in the last round Sunderland scored three past City, all of them from Brian Brobbey. City still won 5-3, but it was not pretty.

Missing: Phil Foden. He was sent off in the 23rd minute of the Manchester derby for kicking out at Bruno Fernandes, got a three-match ban, and Anfield is the last game of it. Antoine Semenyo (left international duty with a swollen leg) and Nico O'Reilly (returned from the England camp for assessment, no diagnosis given) are doubts.

File #2: Liverpool

Manager: Andoni Iraola, who replaced Arne Slot this summer. Last season he took Bournemouth to sixth, the best finish in the club's history.

Form: two wins and three draws, sixth place, 9 points, goals 7:4. Seven games unbeaten in all competitions. Alisson already has three clean sheets, joint-best in the league.

Trump card: Alexander Isak. Last season he scored three league goals in total; this season he has four after five rounds. He celebrated the winner at Bournemouth in the away end and got booked for it.

Problem: the break hit the attack. Isak left the Sweden camp with a minor thigh issue, and Cody Gakpo lasted 17 minutes for the Netherlands against Serbia before hurting his ankle; reports suggest he could be out for several weeks. Between them they have five of Liverpool's seven league goals. After the break Liverpool face nine games in 29 days, so Iraola cannot afford to gamble on his forwards' fitness either.

Head to head: City lead 3-0

City beat Liverpool in all three meetings last season: 3-0 at home in the league, a late comeback win at Anfield in February, and 4-0 in the FA Cup quarter-final in April, with a Haaland hat-trick. So City travel to Anfield on a three-game winning run against this opponent.

Three scenarios

Scenario 1. City keep rolling

Liverpool are without Gakpo, Isak is carrying a thigh problem, and Haaland has five goals in five rounds. The Dimers prediction model gives City a 42.2% chance of winning, the most likely single outcome. What to watch: a City win, Haaland to score.

Scenario 2. The draw everyone has got used to

Three draws in five rounds is no accident for Liverpool: Iraola's side run a lot and concede little. The same Dimers model names 1-1 as the most likely score. If Liverpool shut down the middle and deny Haaland space, the points get shared.

Scenario 3. Anfield breaks the leader

City have already conceded five, and Alisson shares the league lead in clean sheets. If Isak starts and Iraola turns the pressing on from the first minute, the hosts can win this. Both teams to score also looks lively here: City's attack plus a defence that let in three against Sunderland makes it a live option whoever wins.

One more factor: three days later City host PSG, the current Champions League holders. Maresca is unlikely to rest key players at Anfield, but substitutions may come earlier than usual.

A Sunday game: good timing for the sports bonus

Coins.Game runs a weekly sports bonus of up to $10,000. Sports and esports bets count from Sunday to Friday, the bonus is credited on Saturday and can be withdrawn with no wagering. The October 11 game falls on a Sunday, the first day of a new bonus week.

• $100+ turnover gives a $1 bonus;
• $500+ gives $10;
• $1,000+ gives $20;
• $5,000+ gives $100;
• the top tier is $10,000 for $500,000+ turnover.

Claim it on the Coins.Game bonuses page: find the Weekly Sport Bonus card and press Claim. Bets placed on Saturday do not count. The match itself, and the rest of the league, is in the Premier League section.

If "wagering" sounds like jargon, start with "What Is Wagering" and 9 other bonus questions. Esports bets count toward the same bonus, and our ESL Pro League S24 guide covers the CS2 action running the same week.

Before you bet

Line-ups are announced an hour before kick-off, and in this game they matter: Isak starting changes the picture more than any stat. Wait for the team sheets and pick a stake you are comfortable losing. Fresh team news will come closer to the weekend; Maresca, for one, holds his press conference on Friday, October 9.